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As we head back to work full of hot dogs, hamburgers and baked beans from our July 4th celebrations, we close out another great quarter for equity markets. Over the last six months, the S&P 500 has posted 34 new highs as optimism that the economic recovery and the confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to support “easy money” policies will fuel further growth in the U.S.

The big news last week was seen on the jobs front. Employers added 850,000 in June, the largest increase in 10 months. Workers wages also rose briskly. The official unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.9% from May’s reading of 5.8%. The increase was due to Americans coming off the sidelines and actively looking for work.

As we look ahead to a new earnings season, which will begin in a couple of weeks, we know that corporate profits drive the market. As companies perform better, they expand, hire more workers and invest in their business. That in turn helps fuel more growth for the economy not to mention more money for the government. As more people are employed, more people pay income taxes and don’t collect unemployment benefits. They also become better consumers.

The chart below from FactSet shows a 7.3% increase in earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies in the second quarter. You can see this is the highest estimate increase in several years. Combine the amount of savings consumers have built up, and the record amount of cash companies are sitting on and you have a recipe for more good things to come.

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The Markets and Economy

Business spending rose 11.7% in the first quarter of 2021. Software and tech equipment were the leading areas for the increased expenditures. Businesses are expected to continue to expand their investment for the rest of the year. Analysts believe it will further fuel growth in the U.S.
Prior to the pandemic, about 20% of Americans were working from home. As of December 2020, that figure had ballooned to 71%. As expected, office vacancies are soaring. In Manhattan, they’re at their highest level in 30 years.
Not surprising, one of the safest activities during the pandemic; golfing, saw a nearly 14% increase in 2020. Also not surprising, alcohol sales in the second quarter of 2020 increased by 34%.
Initial jobless claims continue to fall. The 51,000 reduction in new claims brought the 392,750 figure to a new post-pandemic low.
U.S. households added $13.5 trillion in wealth last year, according to the Federal Reserve. This was the biggest increase in the last three decades when figures were tracked. Many Americans paid off credit-card debt, saved more, and refinanced into cheaper mortgages. This stands in stark contrast to the economic downturn of 2008 when U.S. households lost $8 trillion.
U.S. consumers are fueling a demand for goods that is rippling around the world. Flush with almost $6 trillion of stimulus money, Americans have ramped up their buying, helping stimulate the global economy.
The number of unemployment-benefit recipients is falling at a faster rate in Missouri and 21 other states cancelling enhanced and extended payments this month. Economists believe this will result in a sharp increase in employment and will help businesses fill much needed job positions.
Ford Motor Co. said the computer chip shortage will force it to cut output across more than a half-dozen U.S. factories in July. a sign that the supply-chain trouble could take longer to ease than auto-industry executives previously believed.
U.S. home prices surged a record 14.6% in April due to a continued shortage of available homes on the market.

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The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Note: All figures exclude reinvested dividends (if any). Sources: Bloomberg, Dorsey Wright & Associates, Inc. and The Wall Street Journal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Resources Investment Advisors, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Resources Investment Advisors. LLC and Vertical Financial Group are not affiliated with Triad Advisors.

David Kover on July 5th, 2021

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