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Concerns Override Good Economic News.

The stock market extended its losses for a fourth week as concerns over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continued to dominate the news. Last week was not without good news. The U.S. labor market is gaining strength as workers are joining the labor-force in increasing numbers. This means employment is approaching levels before Covid-19 began. Employers added 678,000 workers to their payrolls in February, the biggest gain in seven months according to the Labor Department. The jobless rate fell to 3.8% from 4% a month earlier.

Other good news last week came from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 7% in the fourth quarter of 2021. The chart below shows how strong growth was in the fourth quarter compared to the third. This continues to reinforce my belief that the U.S. economy is on solid footing. Yes there are some inflationary challenges that we face but consumers are still flush with cash and corporate profits are strong. Even the supply chain challenges are beginning to show signs of improvement.

The situation in Ukraine will affect U.S. consumers mostly by higher gasoline prices. However, Europe has much tighter economic ties to Russia as Europeans import much of their energy needs (oil and natural gas) from Moscow. The U.S. gets about 8% of its oil from Russia. We still consume far more oil than we extract. As this world crisis has shown, energy independence is extremely important to the U.S. economy.

I expect the markets to continue with the volatility we’ve seen since the invasion, however, I am still bullish on the U.S. stock market. If you have any questions, please contact me.


The Markets and Economy

  • The world’s supply-chain issues are being compounded by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The conflict is bottling up vast commodity exports on both sides sending prices higher. Adding to the challenges, major airlines have suspended flights to Russia.
  • Fed ChairmanJerome Powell said he will propose a quarter-percentage point interest rate increase at the central bank’s meeting in two weeks. There had been speculation the Fed would seek a half-percentage point increase. The chairman cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the main reason for the lesser increase. Powell also said he expects the war to boost inflation further challenging the Fed’s fight to control higher prices.
  • Western nations have placed economic sanctions of a historic scale on Russia. The move reverses 30 years of post-cold war engagement and hobbles Moscow’s financial system. Western companies are pulling back on their investment in Russian businesses too.
  • Russia’s crude oil and natural gas production generates more than 40% of the total revenue for the government. Russia is the number 2 global producer of natural gas and number 3 global producer of crude oil. The U.S. is number one in both categories.
  • The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have lost 8.2% and 12% respectively over the first two months of 2022. That is nothing compared to the losses the Moscow Stock Exchange has experienced since the invasion of Ukraine. Over the past two weeks, Russia’s major exchange has lost approximately 62% of its value.
  • Singer Neil Diamond is the latest artist to sell his catalog and recording rights. The deal with Universal Music Group for an undisclosed amount, puts the Sweet Caroline singer in good company along with other performers such as Bob DylanSting and Bruce Springsteen.


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The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

\Note: All figures exclude reinvested dividends (if any). Sources: Bloomberg, Dorsey Wright & Associates, Inc. and The Wall Street Journal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Resources Investment Advisors, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Resources Investment Advisors. LLC and Vertical Financial Group are not affiliated with Triad Advisors.

David M. Kover, Thomas H. Parker, Bradford E. Harris, Laura T. Scobee, Joseph B. Thaman & Brett M. Dankowski are registered to recommend securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/ SIPC. Investment advice offered through Resources Investment Advisors, Inc., an SEC-registered investment adviser. Resources Investment Advisors, Inc. and Vertical Financial Group are not affiliated with Triad Advisors.